By Marc Jones
LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) – Most investors knew this year would be different given U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to power in the world’s biggest economy, but few predicted how wild the ride would get, or the end results.
World stocks recovered from April’s “Liberation Day” tariffs crash to add another 20% in their sixth year of double-digit gains in the last seven, but look elsewhere and the surprises jump out.
Gold, the ultimate safe port in a storm, is set for its best year since 1979, the U.S. dollar is down nearly 10%, oil off almost 17%, yet the junkiest of junk bonds have soared in the debt markets.
The “Magnificent Seven” U.S. tech giants seem to have lost some of their sparkle since artificial intelligence darling Nvidia became the world’s first $5 trillion company in October, and bitcoin has suddenly lost a third of its value too.
DoubleLine fund manager Bill Campbell described 2025 as “the year of change and the year of surprises”, with the big moves all “intertwined” in the same seismic issues – the trade war, geopolitics and debt.
“If you were to tell me a priori that Trump was going to come in and use very aggressive trade policies and sequence it the way he has, I would not have expected valuations to be as tight or lofty as they are today,” Campbell said.
A near 60% boom in European weapons makers’ stocks has been driven by Trump too, following signals he will scale back Europe’s military protection forcing the region – and other NATO members – to rearm.
